Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 23 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
Aurora Gaming
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 1 game
Elder Titan
Oli · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
389 picks · 634 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 431 bans
Weaver
312 picks · 517 bans
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 112 bans
Pangolier
296 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
PSG Quest 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Weaver23savage
Templar AssassinTA2000
Dragon KnightLorenof
BeastmasterMalik
BrewmasterJabz
HoodwinkOmaR
BatriderQ
Elder TitanDukalis
SvenOli
Game 2prediction correct29:20
PSG Quest 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTA2000
Clinkz23savage
PuckNo!ob
Storm SpiritLorenof
PangolierMalik
BeastmasterJabz
SnapfireOmaR
Spirit BreakerQ
EnigmaDukalis
Elder TitanOli
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2