?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 26 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 634 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 431 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
312 picks · 517 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 112 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 562 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
PSG Quest 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
41% · 151 game54% · 118 games
Weaver23savage
Weaver
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
52% · 194 games50% · 162 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
48% · 132 games53% · 144 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
46% · 231 game50% · 212 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDukalis
56% · 106 games51% · 178 games
SvenOli
Sven
Game 2prediction correct29:20
PSG Quest 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
46% · 94 games55% · 40 games
Clinkz23savage
Clinkz
Puck
PuckNo!ob
48% · 112 games56% · 199 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
49% · 201 game48% · 140 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
45% · 77 games51% · 77 games
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Enigma
EnigmaDukalis
56% · 65 games48% · 93 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2