Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Twisted Minds
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 18 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
Sven
Shad · 13 games
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
405 picks · 603 bans
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 372 bans
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 563 bans
Rubick
308 picks · 161 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 413 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
Twisted Minds 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightShad
Beastmasterpma
Legion CommanderStoneBank
Lifestealergotthejuice
Void SpiritAdzantick
TimbersawNiku
HoodwinkPablo
LionDaze
EnchantressHandsken
DisruptorRiddys
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Twisted Minds 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAdzantick
Ursagotthejuice
Chaos KnightShad
Timbersawpma
Dark SeerStoneBank
PangolierNiku
ClockwerkPablo
RubickDaze
BatriderHandsken
DisruptorRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2