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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindsloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 18 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 603 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 563 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 161 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
Twisted Minds 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
44% · 63 games38% · 72 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderStoneBank
54% · 42 games53% · 72 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAdzantick
58% · 74 games53% · 129 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
48% · 174 games46% · 148 games
LionDaze
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressHandsken
52% · 167 games54% · 99 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Twisted Minds 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAdzantick
60% · 28 games50% · 82 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
46% · 87 games50% · 183 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
52% · 209 games45% · 236 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
53% · 241 game41% · 257 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderHandsken
49% · 323 games59% · 130 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2