Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 10 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
412 picks · 609 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 379 bans
Crystal Maiden
354 picks · 133 bans
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 451 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
310 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 588 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 577 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 28%
Hero pool strength66% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Night Pulse 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 24:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaV-Tune
Anti-MageCoblackk
DoomKami
Pangolierififall
Templar AssassinWorick
GrimstrokeJeezy
Witch DoctorHduo
TechiesJANTER
Game 2prediction correct38:28
Night Pulse 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaV-Tune
Vengeful SpiritCoblackk
Void SpiritWorick
Beastmasterififall
DoomKami
HoodwinkJeezy
WeaverJANTER
Witch DoctorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 79%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2