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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 10 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
25%

Level UP

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
22%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 609 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
354 picks · 133 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 451 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 160 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 588 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 577 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 28%
Hero pool strength66% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Night Pulse 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 24:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
52% · 61 game43% · 58 games
Anti-MageCoblackk
Anti-Mage
Doom
DoomKami
45% · 120 games49% · 259 games
Pangolierififall
Pangolier
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWorick
56% · 129 games51% · 117 games
GrimstrokeJeezy
Grimstroke
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHduo
44% · 12 games
Techies
TechiesJANTER
58% · 112 games
Game 2prediction correct38:28
Night Pulse 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
45% · 59 games50% · 131 game
Vengeful SpiritCoblackk
Vengeful Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
58% · 50 games42% · 89 games
Beastmasterififall
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomKami
49% · 128 games52% · 109 games
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Weaver
WeaverJANTER
56% · 61 game
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHduo
51% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 79%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2