Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAG.Yolo
Batrideroften banned
czy · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 3 games
Rubick
czy · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 3 games
Dark Willowoften banned
czy · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 2 games
Evil Rabbit
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
419 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 392 bans
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 143 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
319 picks · 158 bans
Dark Willow
318 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:37
MAG.Yolo 47%Evil Rabbit 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorRA1NCLOUD
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Treant ProtectorTrazaM
Underlordxiaoyu154
Dark Willowczy
Crystal MaidenQYQX
Game 2prediction correct27:29
MAG.Yolo 50%Evil Rabbit 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightRA1NCLOUD
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
Witch DoctorTrazaM
ZeusButterflyEffect
Dark Willowczy
GrimstrokeQYQX
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 53%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2