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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gods of Hellloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 7 games
71%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 6 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Bignum · 5 games
60%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
40%

Gods of Hell

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 609 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 384 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 144 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 469 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 577 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 154 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 663 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Apex Genesis 70%Gods of Hell 30%
The model gave 70% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 15:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordSammyboy
46% · 27 games52% · 66 games
UrsaCarJua
Ursa
Broodmother
BroodmotherFayde
55% · 10 games52% · 144 games
Vengeful SpiritN1NE
Vengeful Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
53% · 71 game
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorYamSun
56% · 8 games
Rubick
RubickBignum
40% · 94 games
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Apex Genesis 70%Gods of Hell 30%
The model gave 70% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 21:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
47% · 49 games51% · 320 games
GyrocopterCarJua
Gyrocopter
Morphling
MorphlingSammyboy
41% · 127 games54% · 231 game
ClockwerkN1NE
Clockwerk
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
48% · 162 games
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
46% · 90 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
54% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 86%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2