Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 7 games
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Dark Willowoften banned
Bignum · 5 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Gods of Hell
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
418 picks · 609 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 384 bans
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 144 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 577 bans
Rubick
319 picks · 154 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 663 bans
Batrider
315 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Apex Genesis 70%Gods of Hell 30%
The model gave 70% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 15:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordSammyboy
UrsaCarJua
BroodmotherFayde
Vengeful SpiritN1NE
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Witch DoctorYamSun
RubickBignum
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Apex Genesis 70%Gods of Hell 30%
The model gave 70% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 21:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterFayde
GyrocopterCarJua
MorphlingSammyboy
ClockwerkN1NE
TinyW1sh-
PhoenixYamSun
Shadow DemonBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 86%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2