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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 26 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 22 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 18 games
67%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 14 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 223 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 631 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 706 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 568 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 157 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 769 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
331 picks · 934 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:33
OG 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorbzm
47% · 178 games53% · 177 games
Faceless VoidPakazs
Faceless Void
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
54% · 132 games48% · 98 games
LeshracDarkMago
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
46% · 119 games55% · 149 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
48% · 60 games52% · 138 games
GyrocopterPanda
Gyrocopter
Io
IoCeb
45% · 73 games
Game 2prediction correct39:21
OG 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
56% · 110 games58% · 88 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Invoker
Invokerbzm
52% · 54 games43% · 115 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 98 games50% · 177 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Slardar
SlardarWisper
50% · 50 games60% · 49 games
MarciPanda
Marci
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
41% · 117 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2