FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 22 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 18 games
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 631 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 706 bans
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 361 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 568 bans
Rubick
370 picks · 157 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 769 bans
Shadow Demon
331 picks · 934 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:33
OG 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorbzm
Faceless VoidPakazs
LifestealerTimado
LeshracDarkMago
Dark SeerWisper
MarsSacred
Spirit BreakerAri
GyrocopterPanda
IoCeb
Game 2prediction correct39:21
OG 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTimado
Troll WarlordPakazs
Invokerbzm
Dark SeerSacred
HoodwinkAri
KunkkaDarkMago
SlardarWisper
MarciPanda
PhoenixCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2