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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 54 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 36 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 30 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 30 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 28 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 329 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 571 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 229 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 354 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 488 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 228 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 849 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 817 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:21
Aurora Gaming 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
48% · 177 games54% · 303 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
45% · 205 games57% · 114 games
Largo33
Largo
Snapfire
SnapfireMikoto
51% · 236 games45% · 443 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
54% · 353 games47% · 188 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Bane
BaneKaori
51% · 144 games49% · 67 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Game 2prediction correct40:0
Aurora Gaming 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 265 games54% · 275 games
Shadow FiendPure~
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
42% · 235 games50% · 230 games
Snapfirebzm
Snapfire
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
54% · 153 games58% · 108 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Lion
LionMira
47% · 75 games51% · 172 games
ClockwerkAri
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerKaori
43% · 103 games50% · 46 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2