DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 54 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 39 games
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
Tundra Esports
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 36 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 30 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 30 games
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 28 games
Batridersignature
33 · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
544 picks · 329 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 571 bans
Rubick
434 picks · 229 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 354 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 488 bans
Jakiro
337 picks · 228 bans
Puck
320 picks · 849 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:21
Aurora Gaming 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerNightfall
UrsaPure~
TimbersawWs
Largo33
SnapfireMikoto
Pangolierbzm
HoodwinkMira
Dark WillowAri
BaneKaori
LichWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct40:0
Aurora Gaming 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyNightfall
Shadow FiendPure~
Queen of PainMikoto
Snapfirebzm
TimbersawWs
Lycan33
LionMira
ClockwerkAri
SilencerKaori
LichWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2