DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tteam_monkeys-win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Tusk
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Dark Willow
N1NE · 2 games
Grimstroke
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Muerta
N1NE · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
N1NE · 2 games
team_monkeys-
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 2 games
Linaoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
albinozebra · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 596 bans
Mars
361 picks · 554 bans
Techies
360 picks · 286 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
Batrider
336 picks · 703 bans
Hoodwink
324 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% team_monkeys-
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:15
Sand King Gomez 54%team_monkeys- 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistDaaD-
Dragon KnightDouble King
HuskarÑengoflow KELOKE
PangolierRCY
Skywrath MageN1NE
Batridermonkeys-forever
GyrocopterAretes
Enchantressalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed10:33
Sand King Gomez 53%team_monkeys- 47%
The model gave 53% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by team_monkeys- in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingDaaD-
LifestealerDouble King
Primal BeastÑengoflow KELOKE
TinyRCY
Crystal MaidenAretes
Batridermonkeys-forever
HoodwinkN1NE
Miranaalbinozebra
Game 3prediction missed12:33
Sand King Gomez 52%team_monkeys- 48%
The model gave 52% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by team_monkeys- in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingDaaD-
Keeper of the LightRCY
Primal BeastÑengoflow KELOKE
LifestealerDouble King
TinyN1NE
Batridermonkeys-forever
GyrocopterAretes
Miranaalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 59%
Series resultteam_monkeys- 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3