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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 40 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 23 games
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 22 games
55%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Rein · 19 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
bzm · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Largo
Largosignature
33 · 17 games
71%

OG

Windranger
Windranger
Tims · 16 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Natsumi · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 13 games
31%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Tims · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Tims · 9 games
33%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
527 picks · 310 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
430 picks · 189 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 173 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 505 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 296 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 313 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 508 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
283 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
1w Team 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
56% · 135 games45% · 194 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Doom
Doom33
57% · 167 games47% · 452 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
45% · 167 games45% · 112 games
BrewmasterSSS
Brewmaster
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
54% · 118 games48% · 168 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
55% · 460 games48% · 121 game
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct27:11
1w Team 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
39% · 41 game52% · 307 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 106 games49% · 142 games
BristlebackNatsumi
Bristleback
Enigma
Enigma33
51% · 54 games36% · 24 games
Outworld DestroyerTopson
Outworld Destroyer
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
53% · 41 game51% · 180 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWhitemon
55% · 474 games49% · 63 games
SilencerSkem
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct1:0
1w Team 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 14:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
47% · 81 game53% · 139 games
Lone DruidNatsumi
Lone Druid
Tiny
Tinybzm
53% · 286 games43% · 454 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Largo
Largo33
60% · 178 games52% · 310 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
53% · 131 game45% · 68 games
PudgeOneJey
Pudge
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWhitemon
50% · 567 games45% · 272 games
TechiesSkem
Techies
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3