BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Hoodwink
Ari · 40 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 23 games
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 22 games
Venomancersignature
Rein · 19 games
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Earth Spiritsignature
bzm · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 17 games
Largosignature
33 · 17 games
OG
Windranger
Tims · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Natsumi · 14 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 13 games
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Tims · 9 games
Dark Willow
Tims · 9 games
Banesignature
Skem · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
527 picks · 310 bans
Dark Willow
430 picks · 189 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 173 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 505 bans
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 296 bans
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 313 bans
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 508 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
1w Team 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPure~
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Doom33
PangolierTopson
Void Spiritbzm
BrewmasterSSS
TechiesWhitemon
GyrocopterOneJey
HoodwinkAri
DazzleSkem
Game 2prediction correct27:11
1w Team 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPure~
PangolierSSS
Invokerbzm
BristlebackNatsumi
Enigma33
Outworld DestroyerTopson
Nyx AssassinAri
TechiesOneJey
HoodwinkWhitemon
SilencerSkem
Game 3prediction correct1:0
1w Team 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 14:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPure~
Lone DruidNatsumi
Tinybzm
PangolierTopson
Largo33
DoomSSS
Keeper of the LightAri
PudgeOneJey
HoodwinkWhitemon
TechiesSkem
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3