DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 34 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 21 game
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MieRo · 27 games
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Save- · 16 games
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nightfall · 16 games
Lionsignature
Save- · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 501 bans
Mars
305 picks · 431 bans
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
Dragon KnightgpK~
PangolierMalr1ne
LifestealerNightfall
MarsATF
KunkkaMieRo
TerrorbladeCr1t-
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal MaidenSneyking
LionSave-
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:02:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSkiter
LifestealerNightfall
PangolierMalr1ne
LycanMieRo
MarsATF
KunkkagpK~
MiranaSneyking
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow DemonCr1t-
LionSave-
Game 3prediction correct25:12
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
Troll WarlordNightfall
BatriderMalr1ne
LinagpK~
ViperATF
KunkkaMieRo
Shadow DemonSneyking
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
TinyCr1t-
TechiesSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3