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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 34 games
85%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 21 game
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
79%

BETBOOM TEAM

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 28 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MieRo · 27 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
74%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 19 games
68%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Save- · 16 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nightfall · 16 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 346 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 501 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 431 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
281 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 422 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 501 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
47% · 135 games47% · 151 game
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 272 games52% · 83 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 171 game51% · 149 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCr1t-
53% · 155 games50% · 197 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 100 games51% · 253 games
LionSave-
Lion
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:02:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
47% · 112 games49% · 83 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
53% · 241 game53% · 92 games
LycanMieRo
Lycan
Mars
MarsATF
52% · 155 games48% · 134 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
58% · 115 games49% · 206 games
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
43% · 148 games46% · 256 games
LionSave-
Lion
Game 3prediction correct25:12
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 104 games42% · 82 games
Troll WarlordNightfall
Troll Warlord
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
56% · 255 games45% · 62 games
LinagpK~
Lina
Viper
ViperATF
42% · 25 games51% · 84 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
46% · 129 games56% · 162 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
48% · 183 games54% · 306 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3