DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
Lion
fy · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 15 games
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 16 games
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
Sven
dyrachyo · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
362 picks · 316 bans
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 308 bans
Centaur Warrunner
322 picks · 485 bans
Pangolier
268 picks · 377 bans
Hoodwink
251 picks · 142 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 459 bans
Mars
250 picks · 323 bans
Techies
250 picks · 170 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
Azure Ray 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magelou
Terrorbladedyrachyo
LeshracOri
TimbersawQuinn
BatriderFaith_bian
MagnusAce
Techiesfy
HoodwinktOfu
Crystal Maiden天命
UndyingSeleri
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Azure Ray 55%Gaimin Gladiators 45%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
Slarkdyrachyo
TimbersawFaith_bian
Dragon KnightQuinn
Primal BeastOri
DawnbreakerAce
Shadow Shamanfy
LeshracSeleri
Pugna天命
RubicktOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2