Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 16 games
Earthshakeroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 13 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Thunder Awaken
Treant Protectorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
348 picks · 301 bans
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 509 bans
Vengeful Spirit
314 picks · 293 bans
Pangolier
266 picks · 364 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 447 bans
Luna
244 picks · 224 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
Techies
238 picks · 149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
PSG Quest 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoTA2000
PangolierDarkMago
Primal BeastNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
MarsMalik
SlarkLumière
EnchantressDukalis
HoodwinkGenek
LionOmaR
UndyingMjz
Game 2prediction correct36:22
PSG Quest 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
MedusaLumière
PangolierNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Primal BeastMalik
Ember SpiritDarkMago
EnchantressDukalis
BatriderGenek
HoodwinkOmaR
Shadow DemonMjz
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 80%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2