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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 16 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 13 games
62%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
55%

Thunder Awaken

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 301 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 509 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
314 picks · 293 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 364 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 447 bans
55%
Luna
Luna
244 picks · 224 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
238 picks · 149 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
PSG Quest 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoTA2000
40% · 32 games50% · 322 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
54% · 245 games50% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsMalik
50% · 166 games51% · 112 games
SlarkLumière
Slark
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
48% · 310 games51% · 144 games
HoodwinkGenek
Hoodwink
Lion
LionOmaR
48% · 206 games53% · 204 games
UndyingMjz
Undying
Game 2prediction correct36:22
PSG Quest 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
53% · 230 games48% · 143 games
MedusaLumière
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
49% · 399 games54% · 215 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
51% · 251 game49% · 391 game
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
51% · 265 games51% · 316 games
BatriderGenek
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
41% · 121 game53% · 201 game
Shadow DemonMjz
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 80%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2