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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
53%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 21 game
29%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 17 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
gotthejuice · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 483 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 425 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
267 picks · 235 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
259 picks · 173 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 713 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 345 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
241 picks · 389 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total50% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
B8 Esports 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
46% · 150 games53% · 150 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierDendi
55% · 303 games50% · 24 games
Meepopma
Meepo
Timbersaw
TimbersawStoneBank
51% · 184 games55% · 267 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
41% · 110 games52% · 243 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
49% · 136 games46% · 199 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed21:36
B8 Esports 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
54% · 108 games49% · 79 games
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
57% · 39 games41% · 173 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Tiny
TinyDendi
49% · 215 games50% · 162 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
55% · 151 game40% · 139 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
56% · 113 games53% · 73 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 3prediction missed13:38
B8 Esports 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFocus
47% · 100 games50% · 46 games
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Phantom Lancer
Mars
MarsStoneBank
52% · 104 games52% · 176 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDendi
57% · 177 games51% · 37 games
Night Stalkerpma
Night Stalker
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
53% · 170 games48% · 220 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
37% · 89 games48% · 161 game
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3