ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 23 games
Lion
Riddys · 21 game
Snapfire
Daze · 17 games
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
gotthejuice · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 483 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 425 bans
Lion
267 picks · 235 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
Vengeful Spirit
259 picks · 173 bans
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 713 bans
Pangolier
246 picks · 345 bans
Magnus
241 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total50% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
B8 Esports 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinFocus
Windrangergotthejuice
PangolierDendi
Meepopma
TimbersawStoneBank
Primal BeastNiku
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
SnapfireDaze
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
LionRiddys
Game 2prediction missed21:36
B8 Esports 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaFocus
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
SlardarStoneBank
PuckNiku
TinyDendi
Centaur Warrunnerpma
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
HoodwinkDaze
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
LichRiddys
Game 3prediction missed13:38
B8 Esports 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenFocus
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
MarsStoneBank
PuckNiku
Storm SpiritDendi
Night Stalkerpma
EnchantressMary_y
SnapfireDaze
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
LionRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3