DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 22 games
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ekki · 25 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
515 picks · 310 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 355 bans
Jakiro
403 picks · 302 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 205 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 308 bans
Puck
338 picks · 854 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 66%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:53
GamerLegion 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:11:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaGhost
KezmiCKe
Storm SpiritRCY
PangolierNisha
DoomFayde
Centaur WarrunnerAce
RubickBignum
PhoenixtOfu
Winter WyvernSpeeed
HoodwinkBoxi
Game 2prediction correct9:28
GamerLegion 24%Team Liquid 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidGhost
Troll WarlordmiCKe
PangolierRCY
DawnbreakerAce
LycanFayde
Storm SpiritNisha
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
BatriderBoxi
SnapfireBignum
OracletOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2