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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 23 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ekki · 25 games
76%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 310 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 577 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 355 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
403 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 308 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 854 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 848 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 66%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:53
GamerLegion 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:11:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaGhost
53% · 126 games46% · 87 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
51% · 450 games42% · 307 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Doom
DoomFayde
52% · 224 games56% · 188 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickBignum
50% · 330 games43% · 240 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSpeeed
59% · 44 games53% · 352 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct9:28
GamerLegion 24%Team Liquid 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
60% · 108 games43% · 127 games
Troll WarlordmiCKe
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
52% · 317 games49% · 172 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Lycan
LycanFayde
55% · 77 games45% · 320 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
48% · 218 games48% · 314 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireBignum
53% · 271 game51% · 58 games
OracletOfu
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2