European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mitch · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Jakiro
Mitch · 7 games
Monte
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Wraith King
Infernal · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 441 bans
Muerta
237 picks · 326 bans
Dark Willow
226 picks · 114 bans
Phoenix
219 picks · 329 bans
Treant Protector
207 picks · 421 bans
Tusk
204 picks · 182 bans
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 270 bans
Kunkka
194 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
MarsBet Team 54%Monte 46%
The model gave 54% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
BatriderMoonlight
AbaddonMr. Luck
SpectreCrystallize
Faceless VoidLukas
Dragon KnightInfernal
LionBignum
Shadow DemonEcNart
PhoenixLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct22:22
MarsBet Team 55%Monte 45%
The model gave 55% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLukas
TerrorbladeCrystallize
WindrangerW1sh-
BatriderMoonlight
AbaddonMr. Luck
SlardarInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerBignum
Nature's ProphetEcNart
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 64%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2