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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mitch · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mitch · 7 games
43%

Monte

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Infernal · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 441 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 326 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
226 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 329 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
207 picks · 421 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
204 picks · 182 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 270 bans
49%
Kunkka
Kunkka
194 picks · 537 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
MarsBet Team 54%Monte 46%
The model gave 54% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
56% · 121 game45% · 172 games
BatriderMoonlight
Batrider
Abaddon
AbaddonMr. Luck
42% · 44 games48% · 50 games
SpectreCrystallize
Spectre
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
43% · 108 games59% · 92 games
Dragon KnightInfernal
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionBignum
48% · 72 games52% · 130 games
Shadow DemonEcNart
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
51% · 99 games
Game 2prediction correct22:22
MarsBet Team 55%Monte 45%
The model gave 55% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
41% · 64 games54% · 103 games
TerrorbladeCrystallize
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
48% · 85 games56% · 122 games
BatriderMoonlight
Batrider
Abaddon
AbaddonMr. Luck
53% · 41 game61% · 12 games
SlardarInfernal
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBignum
47% · 76 games49% · 112 games
Nature's ProphetEcNart
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
43% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 64%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2