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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 13 games
85%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Nisha · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%

BETBOOM TEAM

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 33 games
76%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 32 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 21 game
62%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Save- · 20 games
55%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 20 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 439 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
235 picks · 114 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
222 picks · 326 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 439 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 173 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
204 picks · 541 bans
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
195 picks · 268 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:13
Team Liquid 43%BETBOOM TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
55% · 59 games52% · 137 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
50% · 237 games51% · 50 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 68 games41% · 93 games
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
47% · 126 games55% · 174 games
PugnaTORONTOTOKYO
Pugna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
52% · 77 games51% · 113 games
GrimstrokeSave-
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed40:18
Team Liquid 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
44% · 74 games57% · 51 game
Chaos KnightNightfall
Chaos Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 227 games42% · 100 games
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
44% · 73 games53% · 117 games
Monkey KinggpK~
Monkey King
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
48% · 71 game58% · 107 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Lion
LionBoxi
56% · 48 games51% · 118 games
GrimstrokeTORONTOTOKYO
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2