ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
Lunasignature
miCKe · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
Leshracsignature
Nisha · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 33 games
Techiessignature
Save- · 32 games
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Enchantress
Save- · 20 games
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 20 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 439 bans
Dark Willow
235 picks · 114 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
Phoenix
222 picks · 326 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
205 picks · 173 bans
Kunkka
204 picks · 541 bans
Centaur Warrunner
195 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:13
Team Liquid 43%BETBOOM TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusamiCKe
PuckgpK~
PangolierNisha
LifestealerNightfall
MarsSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Shadow DemonBoxi
PugnaTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
GrimstrokeSave-
Game 2prediction missed40:18
Team Liquid 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealermiCKe
Chaos KnightNightfall
PangolierNisha
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
MarsSabeRLight-
Monkey KinggpK~
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
PugnaSave-
LionBoxi
GrimstrokeTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2