ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 31 game
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 27 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 27 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 26 games
Rubick
Antares · 22 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 18 games
LGD Gaming
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Undyingsignature
y` · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 411 bans
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 322 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 453 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 312 bans
Kunkka
197 picks · 510 bans
Tusk
194 picks · 162 bans
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total65% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
9Pandas 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaV-Tune
Lunashiro
Invokerkiyotaka
DazzleEmo
TidehunterRAMZES666
Spirit BreakerPyw
Shadow ShamanAfoninje
Pangolierniu
Treant ProtectorSolo
Ancient Apparitiony`
Game 2prediction correct13:38
9Pandas 44%LGD Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreV-Tune
Razorshiro
SlardarRAMZES666
Brewmasterniu
Kunkkakiyotaka
DazzleEmo
WeaverAfoninje
Lichy`
GyrocopterSolo
TuskPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 65%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2