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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 16 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 14 games
43%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
73%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Riddys · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 16 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Dukalis · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 358 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
237 picks · 110 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 475 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
207 picks · 316 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
203 picks · 299 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 390 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 348 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
188 picks · 158 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 72%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total83% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
Natus Vincere Junior 30%Team Tickles 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
52% · 212 games47% · 44 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaNiku
54% · 101 game53% · 109 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritpma
53% · 72 games49% · 96 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
48% · 37 games49% · 102 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Marci
MarciDaze
54% · 63 games40% · 134 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Natus Vincere Junior 32%Team Tickles 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
56% · 87 games52% · 38 games
Wraith KingUlnit
Wraith King
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
53% · 134 games49% · 118 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Dazzle
DazzleNiku
50% · 35 games47% · 66 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciDaze
42% · 47 games49% · 58 games
WeaverDukalis
Weaver
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
52% · 76 games45% · 99 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct7:19
Natus Vincere Junior 31%Team Tickles 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
48% · 105 games52% · 67 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Magnus
Magnuspma
48% · 75 games54% · 151 game
PuckLorenof
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
51% · 178 games41% · 96 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
49% · 114 games58% · 59 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
49% · 12 games52% · 111 games
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 83%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3