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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Atlas Burden

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 3 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Panto · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnus
Cloud · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 2 games
0%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 6 games
17%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 4 games
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
0%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 2 games
0%
Lich
Lich
aik · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
erase · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 334 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 117 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
217 picks · 299 bans
45%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 476 bans
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 215 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
198 picks · 296 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 369 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 429 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Atlas Burden
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:43
Atlas Burden 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaiseedeadpeople
49% · 69 games53% · 65 games
SpectreSatanic
Spectre
Tiny
Tinyre1bl
50% · 188 games46% · 101 game
Puckerase
Puck
Magnus
MagnusCloud
51% · 120 games48% · 168 games
Primal BeastpJonn
Primal Beast
Bane
BaneHellscream
50% · 26 games52% · 110 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
49% · 109 games52% · 68 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 2prediction missed13:25
Atlas Burden 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanCloud
52% · 74 games49% · 140 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Wraith King
Wraith Kingiseedeadpeople
52% · 41 game53% · 116 games
Linaerase
Lina
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerre1bl
49% · 16 games47% · 90 games
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetHellscream
49% · 190 games53% · 76 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
46% · 127 games58% · 26 games
Baneaik
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2