Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 2 games
Enchantress
Panto · 2 games
Magnus
Cloud · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 2 games
Lich
aik · 2 games
Magnus
erase · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
263 picks · 334 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 117 bans
Phoenix
217 picks · 299 bans
Treant Protector
217 picks · 476 bans
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 215 bans
Muerta
198 picks · 296 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 369 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 429 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Atlas Burden
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:43
Atlas Burden 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunaiseedeadpeople
SpectreSatanic
Tinyre1bl
Puckerase
MagnusCloud
Primal BeastpJonn
BaneHellscream
Dark Willowrue
GrimstrokePanto
Lichaik
Game 2prediction missed13:25
Atlas Burden 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanCloud
TerrorbladeSatanic
Wraith Kingiseedeadpeople
Linaerase
Outworld Destroyerre1bl
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Nature's ProphetHellscream
Muertarue
PhoenixPanto
Baneaik
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2