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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
pomoikawin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sand King Gomezloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

pomoika

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
smN · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Fayde · 1 game
0%

Sand King Gomez

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 6 games
17%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
N1NE · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
212 picks · 242 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
208 picks · 93 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 403 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
179 picks · 240 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 251 bans
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
171 picks · 396 bans
66%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% pomoika
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% pomoika
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:35
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by pomoika in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreKom4rt
44% · 33 games49% · 44 games
BrewmasterH1j4ck
Brewmaster
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
56% · 45 games51% · 116 games
TuskN1NE
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFrancisLee
48% · 101 game45% · 60 games
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnasmN
57% · 41 game
Game 2prediction missed15:37
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKom4rt
49% · 77 games51% · 79 games
DawnbreakerH1j4ck
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusFayde
67% · 42 games42% · 40 games
WeaverN1NE
Weaver
Rubick
RubickFrancisLee
52% · 266 games49% · 296 games
TuskCHAAANNN
Tusk
Pugna
PugnasmN
48% · 30 games
Game 3prediction correct33:8
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by pomoika in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKom4rt
42% · 38 games58% · 54 games
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
60% · 21 game46% · 45 games
MuertaN1NE
Muerta
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetsmN
49% · 146 games49% · 182 games
TuskCHAAANNN
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFrancisLee
50% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoritepomoika · 52%
Series resultpomoika 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3