ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPpomoikawin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
pomoika
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
smN · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Wraith King
Fayde · 1 game
Sand King Gomez
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 7 games
Mirana
N1NE · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Dark Willow
N1NE · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 4 games
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
212 picks · 242 bans
Dark Willow
208 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
189 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 240 bans
Sven
171 picks · 251 bans
Treant Protector
171 picks · 396 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% pomoika
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% pomoika
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:35
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by pomoika in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreKom4rt
BrewmasterH1j4ck
EnigmaFayde
TuskN1NE
Dark WillowFrancisLee
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
PugnasmN
Game 2prediction missed15:37
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKom4rt
DawnbreakerH1j4ck
MagnusFayde
WeaverN1NE
RubickFrancisLee
TuskCHAAANNN
PugnasmN
Game 3prediction correct33:8
pomoika 51%Sand King Gomez 49%
The model gave 51% on pomoika — the game was taken by pomoika in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKom4rt
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Night StalkerFayde
MuertaN1NE
Nature's ProphetsmN
TuskCHAAANNN
Dark WillowFrancisLee
Model check result
Model favoritepomoika · 52%
Series resultpomoika 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3