Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 11 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 31 game
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 30 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 30 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 28 games
Techiessignature
Save- · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Save- · 23 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
512 picks · 335 bans
Doom
452 picks · 976 bans
Batrider
415 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 863 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 351 bans
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1003 bans
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Team Secret 31%BETBOOM TEAM 69%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerArmel
MedusaNightfall
Dark SeerFbz
LycanPure~
Monkey KingCrystallis
TinygpK~
Batrideryamich
EnchantressSave-
Shadow DemonPuppey
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction missed32:10
Team Secret 30%BETBOOM TEAM 70%
The model gave 70% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArmel
DoomPure~
Dark SeerFbz
SnapfiregpK~
RazorCrystallis
Faceless VoidNightfall
Enigmayamich
EnchantressSave-
ClockwerkPuppey
LichTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 81%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2