The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 20 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 18 games
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
Rubick
Antares · 35 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 30 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
Enigmaoften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
671 picks · 458 bans
Techies
654 picks · 689 bans
Doom
580 picks · 1123 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1048 bans
Disruptor
486 picks · 459 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 727 bans
Pangolier
440 picks · 913 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
PSG Quest 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomATF
MorphlingRAMZES666
SlarkTA2000
BroodmotherMieRo
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Pangolierkiyotaka
EnchantressOmaR
EnigmaSolo
LichKaori
RubickAntares
Game 2prediction correct25:8
PSG Quest 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
MorphlingRAMZES666
BroodmotherATF
Earthshakerkiyotaka
LinaNo!ob
Legion CommanderMieRo
TechiesOmaR
EnigmaSolo
SilencerKaori
Skywrath MageAntares
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2