?
The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 20 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 18 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 35 games
46%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
73%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 30 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MieRo · 24 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
671 picks · 458 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
654 picks · 689 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
580 picks · 1123 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1225 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1048 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
486 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 727 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
440 picks · 913 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
PSG Quest 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
49% · 384 games50% · 314 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Slark
SlarkTA2000
55% · 282 games49% · 185 games
BroodmotherMieRo
Broodmother
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo!ob
49% · 572 games52% · 453 games
Pangolierkiyotaka
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressOmaR
45% · 382 games51% · 175 games
EnigmaSolo
Enigma
Lich
LichKaori
51% · 146 games48% · 639 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct25:8
PSG Quest 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
54% · 130 games53% · 222 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
54% · 128 games48% · 79 games
Earthshakerkiyotaka
Earthshaker
Lina
LinaNo!ob
48% · 125 games43% · 110 games
Legion CommanderMieRo
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesOmaR
53% · 204 games49% · 188 games
EnigmaSolo
Enigma
Silencer
SilencerKaori
48% · 192 games49% · 180 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2