Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Zerowin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusksignature
omoxiloyi · 17 games
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 8 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tz. · 7 games
Team Zero
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Cty · 4 games
Rubick
iceice · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 478 bans
Techies
594 picks · 637 bans
Doom
570 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 499 bans
Beastmaster
526 picks · 1232 bans
Ember Spirit
474 picks · 1050 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 680 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 73%
Hero pool strength56% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
Big Brain 41%Team Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenGodKing
TerrorbladeCty
Legion CommanderSakata
BatriderBEYOND
Windrangercsj
Void Spirit7e
Tuskomoxiloyi
Spirit Breakericeice
53% · 135 games
Techieszzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 64%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1