Big Brain vs Team Zero — prediction DPC2S3КВД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

Big Brainloss 0:1

series probability

36%64%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Team Zerowin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusksignature

omoxiloyi · 17 games

65%

Mirana

marblue · 10 games

50%

Disruptor

Tz. · 8 games

50%

Doomoften banned

Molasses · 8 games

38%

Morphlingsignature

GodKing · 8 games

75%

Snapfire

Molasses · 8 games

50%

Treant Protector

Tz. · 8 games

25%

Monkey Kingsignature

Tz. · 7 games

71%

Team Zero

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

iceice · 5 games

80%

Pangolieroften banned

7e · 5 games

80%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

zzq · 5 games

80%

Timbersawoften banned

7e · 5 games

40%

Windrangeroften banned

Cty · 5 games

80%

Enchantressoften banned

zzq · 4 games

75%

Morphlingoften banned

Cty · 4 games

100%

Rubick

iceice · 4 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

699 picks · 478 bans

47%

Techies

594 picks · 637 bans

54%

Doom

570 picks · 1110 bans

53%

Disruptor

539 picks · 499 bans

53%

Beastmaster

526 picks · 1232 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

474 picks · 1050 bans

49%

Enchantress

464 picks · 680 bans

50%

Pangolier

458 picks · 917 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 73%

Hero pool strength56% Team Zero

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total64% Team Zero

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct18:36

Big Brain 41%Team Zero 59%

The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 38:15.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo