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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
27%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 8 games
38%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
rue · 8 games
50%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 487 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
568 picks · 613 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1096 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1220 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1037 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 673 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 913 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total55% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:38
IVY 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherMikSa`
51% · 134 games46% · 137 games
MagnusNande
Magnus
Juggernaut
JuggernautOtaker
52% · 66 games49% · 418 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
56% · 169 games41% · 168 games
MarsXibbe
Mars
Mirana
Miranarue
54% · 224 games51% · 110 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Undying
UndyingFlash
53% · 240 games
Game 2prediction correct18:36
IVY 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
51% · 144 games49% · 168 games
MagnusNande
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerOtaker
45% · 114 games53% · 435 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherMikSa`
51% · 99 games50% · 32 games
AxeXibbe
Axe
Mirana
Miranarue
53% · 208 games49% · 152 games
Skywrath MageRESPECT
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingFlash
50% · 222 games
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 55%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2