Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
Mirana
Qupe · 15 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 10 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
Tiny
Qupe · 9 games
Rubick
rue · 8 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
rue · 8 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
RESPECT · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 487 bans
Techies
568 picks · 613 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1096 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 502 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1220 bans
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1037 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 673 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 913 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total55% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:38
IVY 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherMikSa`
MagnusNande
JuggernautOtaker
PangolierSupream^
Primal BeastMoonlight
MarsXibbe
Miranarue
PugnaRESPECT
UndyingFlash
Game 2prediction correct18:36
IVY 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastMoonlight
MagnusNande
WindrangerOtaker
PangolierSupream^
BroodmotherMikSa`
AxeXibbe
Miranarue
Skywrath MageRESPECT
UndyingFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 55%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2