DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 22 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 22 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 21 game
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 14 games
Evil Geniuses
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 574 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 523 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1283 bans
Doom
551 picks · 1096 bans
Techies
499 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1110 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:32
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNightfall
BloodseekerPakazs
Death ProphetgpK~
Legion CommanderChris Luck
DoomPure~
Dark SeerWisper
TechiesSave-
Skywrath MageMatthew
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingPanda
Game 2prediction missed22:24
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
UrsaPakazs
DoomPure~
KunkkaChris Luck
WindrangergpK~
SnapfireWisper
EnchantressSave-
Bounty HunterMatthew
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Skywrath MagePanda
Game 3prediction missed29:19
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinagpK~
BloodseekerPakazs
JuggernautNightfall
Shadow FiendChris Luck
DoomPure~
SnapfireWisper
TechiesSave-
Bounty HunterMatthew
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3