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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 22 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 21 game
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 14 games
79%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 24 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 574 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 523 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1283 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
551 picks · 1096 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
499 picks · 564 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
475 picks · 951 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1110 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 646 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:32
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
48% · 167 games47% · 200 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetgpK~
50% · 201 game48% · 83 games
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Doom
DoomPure~
55% · 217 games49% · 133 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesSave-
58% · 184 games43% · 194 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 219 games45% · 378 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction missed22:24
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
45% · 147 games46% · 122 games
UrsaPakazs
Ursa
Doom
DoomPure~
54% · 205 games51% · 72 games
KunkkaChris Luck
Kunkka
Windranger
WindrangergpK~
47% · 63 games49% · 255 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
46% · 203 games57% · 75 games
Bounty HunterMatthew
Bounty Hunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 64 games53% · 158 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed29:19
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinagpK~
56% · 158 games44% · 164 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
55% · 74 games52% · 140 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomPure~
51% · 271 game45% · 287 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Techies
TechiesSave-
52% · 161 game47% · 66 games
Bounty HunterMatthew
Bounty Hunter
Disruptor
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 302 games45% · 309 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3