Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 14 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 8 games
Mirana
forcemajor · 8 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
Mirana
Daze · 9 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 7 games
Tiny
Ri4man · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
750 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 534 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1324 bans
Techies
480 picks · 540 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 958 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1148 bans
Enchantress
449 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:29
cybercats 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 54:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Storm Spirityoung G
Void SpiritRi4man
TidehunterDkFogas
Magnuspma
Techiesforcemajor
RubickDaze
BatriderDukalis
MiranaRiddys
Game 2prediction correct22:25
cybercats 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Bloodseekergotthejuice
Void Spirityoung G
TinyRi4man
VisageDkFogas
Magnuspma
Batriderforcemajor
Shadow DemonDaze
PugnaDukalis
TechiesRiddys
Game 3prediction missed18:22
cybercats 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonDarkLord^
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Void Spirityoung G
Storm SpiritRi4man
Primal BeastDkFogas
Magnuspma
BatriderDukalis
Keeper of the LightDaze
Shadow Demonforcemajor
TechiesRiddys
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3