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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 14 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zenica · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 8 games
38%
Mirana
Mirana
forcemajor · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 6 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
750 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1324 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
480 picks · 540 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 958 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1148 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
449 picks · 644 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:29
cybercats 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 54:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
52% · 274 games57% · 104 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
51% · 231 game46% · 248 games
Void SpiritRi4man
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterDkFogas
49% · 143 games49% · 220 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Techies
Techiesforcemajor
50% · 338 games41% · 465 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderDukalis
50% · 322 games56% · 271 game
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct22:25
cybercats 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDarkLord^
57% · 142 games44% · 168 games
Bloodseekergotthejuice
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
53% · 263 games46% · 341 game
TinyRi4man
Tiny
Visage
VisageDkFogas
52% · 160 games47% · 176 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Batrider
Batriderforcemajor
50% · 347 games51% · 118 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
52% · 131 game47% · 240 games
TechiesRiddys
Techies
Game 3prediction missed18:22
cybercats 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDarkLord^
46% · 45 games48% · 53 games
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Phantom Lancer
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
45% · 235 games53% · 162 games
Storm SpiritRi4man
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDkFogas
48% · 82 games46% · 157 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderDukalis
51% · 279 games56% · 139 games
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonforcemajor
51% · 78 games53% · 208 games
TechiesRiddys
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3