Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
UALEIKUMNIHAO
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 12 games
Rubick
Mary_y · 11 games
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
708 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
581 picks · 504 bans
Beastmaster
483 picks · 1182 bans
Doom
479 picks · 891 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1084 bans
Pangolier
409 picks · 869 bans
Mirana
403 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
399 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
BETBOOM TEAM 76%UALEIKUMNIHAO 24%
The model gave 76% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNightfall
SvenPalantimos
DoomPure~
BeastmasterShergarat
Void SpiritgpK~
PangolierChira JUNIOR
PugnaSave-
Techiesb1kA
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
RubickMary_y
Game 2prediction correct40:20
BETBOOM TEAM 75%UALEIKUMNIHAO 25%
The model gave 75% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNightfall
BloodseekerPalantimos
Ember SpiritgpK~
HuskarChira JUNIOR
EnchantressPure~
BroodmotherShergarat
PudgeSave-
Clinkzb1kA
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
DisruptorMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 90%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2