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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Alone · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
25%

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 545 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 408 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
467 picks · 237 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
395 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1017 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 910 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total92% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
BTC Gaming 22%South America Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMnz
50% · 81 game46% · 157 games
KezWits
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerAlone
50% · 168 games45% · 149 games
ViperDarkMago
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMjz
53% · 297 games49% · 220 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroPrada
49% · 458 games55% · 98 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
53% · 380 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct17:42
BTC Gaming 22%South America Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarAlone
59% · 224 games44% · 116 games
DoomWits
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMnz
50% · 296 games47% · 320 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMjz
56% · 299 games48% · 112 games
DawnbreakerFrank
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPrada
56% · 22 games40% · 102 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
46% · 191 game
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 92%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2