DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BTC Gaming
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
Rubick
Alone · 6 games
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
South America Rejects
Grimstroke
Scofield · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
532 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 531 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
Hoodwink
467 picks · 237 bans
Warlock
395 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1017 bans
Puck
385 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total92% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
BTC Gaming 22%South America Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMnz
KezWits
WindrangerAlone
ViperDarkMago
HoodwinkMjz
UnderlordFrank
JakiroPrada
Nyx AssassinScofield
53% · 380 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Game 2prediction correct17:42
BTC Gaming 22%South America Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarAlone
DoomWits
BeastmasterMnz
PangolierDarkMago
HoodwinkMjz
DawnbreakerFrank
Crystal MaidenPrada
ClockwerkScofield
46% · 191 game
EnchantressElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 92%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2