PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
Tusk
fy · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
Tusk
rue · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 556 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
472 picks · 532 bans
Tusk
464 picks · 413 bans
Hoodwink
463 picks · 237 bans
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1020 bans
Puck
387 picks · 907 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:36
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerNothingToSay
TimbersawBatyuk
TinyAme
Lone DruidYatoro
TidehunterXxs
Primal BeastLarl
PhoenixxNova
SilencerPanto
Hoodwinkfy
Ringmasterrue
Game 2prediction missed24:22
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerAme
Faceless VoidYatoro
PangolierXxs
BeastmasterLarl
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
BatriderBatyuk
Hoodwinkfy
Techiesrue
PhoenixxNova
SilencerPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2